DA LI JE SEKULARNA STAGNACIJA REALNI IZAZOV ZA EKONOMIJE EVROZONE?

Nikolić Goran (Институт за евроспке студије, Београд), goranvnikolic@gmail.com

Secular stagnation refers to a situation in which negative real interest rates are needed to equate saving and investment with full employment. We can certainly see the trends in the Eurozone where six years after the crisis, recovery is still anemic despite pursuing of the expansive monetary policy. After real growth in the euro area of 2.3% in the period 1995-2007, the average GDP growth of only 1.7% is estimated in the period 2014-2030. Having in mind that recent referent projections (IMF, EIU) for real GDP growth are only 0.8% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015, these projections are perhaps optimistic. The real concern is slow growth in the decades to come. Main four barriers to growth are demographics, education, inequality, and government debt. Namely, rising dependency ratios, tougher financial regulation, debt overhang, and poor productivity growth are exerting downward pressure on economic growth and equilibrium real interest rates. In spite of that, there is a significant scope to increase the efficiency of financial intermediation in the euro zone and that the potential for structural reforms remains much greater than in other advanced economies. We need policies that stimulate productivity growth and raise labor-force participation by boosting persistent investment demand. It is important to conduct a prolonged countercyclical fiscal policy and revise the European Fiscal Stability Treaty.

Ključne reči: secular stagnation, euro zone, crisis, economic growth, fiscal policy, interest rates