EKONOMSKE TENDENCIJE EVROZONE: EFEKTI NA SRBIJU

Nikolić Goran (Научни сарадник, Институт за европске студије, Београд),

It is expected that in 2014 the global GDP growth will be the fastest in the last four years. In the Eurozone, indicators for the second half of 2013 and early 2014 generally support the view that the recession is over and that mild recovery is broadening. Many measures of business performance continue to improve, while labour markets remain weak especially in the Eurozone\'s periphery. Although mild, economic growth will have a positive effect on household and business confidence, boosting consumer spending and investment. Real GDP growth in the Eurozone will be 1%-1.1% in 2014 picking up to an average of 1.4% in the period from 2015-2018.The expected increase in import demand in the Eurozone will affect the exports of Serbia, which will, in spite of that, certainly slowdown in 2014, after strong growth that was achieved last year. Another channel of influence on Serbia, which includes foreign direct investments and cross-border transactions, is uncertain, especially after the loan was partially repaid in 2013. Remittances and pensions from the Eurozone is a stable and slightly growing source of foreign exchange for the Serbian economy.

Keywords: Economic crisis, Euro area, GDP, Serbia, decreasing